Navigating Precarity: Climate Change, Migration, and Adaptation Strategies in Rural Nepal

Year: 2025
Ankur Koirala
Junior Researcher, Himalaya Centre for Asian, Kathmandu University

This paper explores the precarities and adaptation strategies of the migrants and non-migrants in Nepal
within the context of climate change. By examining the various interventions in place, it assesses how
they are instrumentalized in the individuals’ adaptive mechanisms and migration decisions. The study was
conducted in two districts: Varagung Rural Municipality in Mustang and Indrawati Rural Municipality in
Sindhupalchok- two distinct regions with varying socio-economic and environmental contexts but both,
heavily impacted by climatic hazards. As climate- induced risks intensify, individuals have increasingly
sought external interventions to better adapt to the environmental challenges. Employing a
mixed-methods approach, the research integrated quantitative and qualitative tools like Community
Mapping, Hazard Mapping, Access Mapping, Key Informant Interviews (KIIs), In-depth interviews
(IDIs), Focused Group Discussions (FGDs) and Policy Reviews. Second, quantitative household surveys
were employed in both the Rural Municipalities between May and July, 2024. Together, the tools
provided a comprehensive understanding of precarity, available interventions, stories of community
resilience and adaptive strategies in the face of environmental and social challenges in these areas. Our
findings reconfirm a significant surge in migration from these rural municipalities to urban centers, with
those who are left-behind facing heightened vulnerabilities, particularly due to droughts, and loss of
agricultural production. Marginalized populations and persons with disabilities (PWDs) experience
amplified risks, often feeling underserved by the existing interventions, often yearning for agencies to
safeguard their overall livelihood and well-being. Furthermore, we observe that climate change and
migration-based interventions in these regions are fragmented, ad hoc, and lacking strategic frameworks.
To enhance adaptation outcomes, future interventions must better address the root vulnerabilities created
by climate change, integrate the migration aspirations of the youth, and align with the sustainable
development goals (SDGs). Policies should not only focus on the intersection of climate change and
migration but also shed light on intersectionality between precarity and adaptive capabilities, and the
broader issues of social inequality and vulnerability to foster more resilient communities.The findings
further highlight the inadequacy of the current interventions in addressing climate-induced vulnerabilities,
particularly among marginalized groups, and accentuate the need for comprehensive policies that
sufficiently integrate migration and adaptation to ensure sustainable livelihoods, and simultaneously,
attempt to redirect their decisions to migrate to an alien territory for better opportunities.

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