Ankit Adhikari

Similar to what was witnessed in the past few decades, the number of people migrating to urban centres from rural regions in Nepal has seen an overwhelming rise in the last 10 years as well, as indicated by the census report released this week.

In what experts say paints a ‘bleak picture’ depicting an imbalanced distribution of resources across Nepal, the report shows that over 17 percent of the total population currently lives in urban centres in the country, which, at 3276.28 sq km, constitutes about 2.22 percent of the total area (147,181 sq km). The number of people living in rural regions, which cover an area of 143,904.72 sq km, on the other hand, comes to about 21,970,684. This means that while the population density in urban areas is 1,381 persons per sq km, it is just 153 in rural areas.

These figures show a sharp growth of 4 percent in urban population over a decade; the 2001 census had stated that around 13 percent of the total population (23,151,423) lived in 58 designated urban spaces in the country. For instance, the population density is highest in the Kathmandu district (4,416 persons per sq km) and lowest (3 persons per sq km) in Manang in western Nepal. The fastest decadal population growth rate has also been found in the Kathmandu district (61.23 percent), and least, again, in Manang (-31.80 percent). Altogether, 27 districts including Manang, Khotang, Mustang, Terhathum and Bhojpur, among others, have recorded negative population growth during the last decade. Experts attribute this to the migration of people living in these areas to nearby urban centres, mostly towards the Tarai belt, or hilly districts including the Kathmandu Valley and Pokhara.

In terms of ecological belts, while the mountain area has the least population (1,781,792), hilly districts come in second with 11,394,007 persons, and the Tarai scores the highest with 13,318,705, showing a sharp increment of over 2 percent with regards to migration trends in the last census report. While 48 percent of the total population lived in Tarai districts back in 2001, that figure has gone up to over 50 percent at present. There are more than 29 urban centres in districts in the Tarai.

To further fortify the urban areas’ claims on the increasing migration trends, while 7.3 percent of the population lived in mountain areas in 2001, the number has now dropped to 6.72 percent. This is a reflection of the heavy migration taking place from the mountain regions to hilly areas and Tarai districts.

Sociologist Dr Bal Kumar KC attributes these patterns of internal migration to developmental factors including education, health, and employment, among others. According to KC, the reason behind the overwhelming population growth in the Kathmandu Valley is mostly owing to the decade-long armed insurgency. “Many rural families shifted to Kathmandu during the conflict era,” he says. “Apart from other reasons like education, and better living standards, this is the main motivation for the majority of people who have moved to Kathmandu in recent years.” KC believes the current migration trends could have negative consequences in the long run. “Kathmandu can be viewed as an example. Rampant pollution, lack of water and other crises are examples of problems which could be replicated in other urban areas in the future.”

Published on: 1 December 2012 | The Kathmandu Post